See WUFs latest below.  Has someone been at the Christmas spirit a little early I ask myself.
After speculating, and that's all it is, on the reasons for a few more fish we are told that there are signs from Wye juvenile data that the river is holding more salmon.How does that work I wonder. will we ever see the juvenile data in any comprehensive way I wonder. I suspect not . I suspect not and will they be independent anyway. WHERE IS THE LINK TO THE INFORMATION.  Usk LFG had a detailed report on Usk stocks - where is the one for the Wye or the Monnow even?.  Perhaps it doesn't say what they want it to say.  Increased juveniles are not necessarily the result of more adults but equally as likely to be the better survival of a particular spawning consort.
It seems we had a very good smolt run this year too.  Indeed that may be so but the evidence is all anecdotal.  The fact is that conditions for seeing descending smolts were very good for much of the crucial time this season.   Had there been high coloured water very few may have been seen and what would the conclusion have been then. Certainly there was no smolt count anywhere on the system this year or indeed ever so there is no way of making a real comparison year on year.
As for this paragraph;

"Finally, there are always worries that the high water will lead to the dreaded "redd washout." On the Wye there is very little main stem spawning below Hereford, if any at all, so there is little spawning at risk. The river carries way too much silt, so salmon have chosen to spawn upstream and in those tributaries not inundated with sediment. So far, I don't think the levels on either river have exceeded anything out of the ordinary and we are not even sure if the majority of the salmon have spawned yet anyway."

Why does he seem to suggest that redd washout is only likely to occure below Hereford when the main spawning has always been on the upper river and upper main tributaries though fish did spawn throughout the system and may still do so.  No one counts them below Hereford any more anyway
It is the upper river which is most at risk of gravel movement and it was here the recent spate was at it;'s highest, reaching in fact levels as high as ever recorded.  Did they look out of the window I wonder, did they see the water up to the Builth Bulls belly., Did they see the raging Ithon and Irfon and Upper river at near record levels and  the river in the fields in many areas,.Did they seriously think that many redds laid down in these areas were not pretty much ruined as they often are - not to mention the survival of smaller juveniles.
Its true of course that salmon have always had to face challenging conditions and conditions at spawning time are a big factor in later years catches causing the fluctuations in part that we always see..   I wonder if anyone in Cumbria or parts of Scotland would agree with him. Not likely.Perhaps he should give them a ring and tell them not to worry -its all OK!

Lets hope the majority of the salmon have not yet spawned and no doubt in some places they would have been successful anyway.  Juvenile data next year might reveal some evidence -  that is if we ever saw it and it was not produced by the same people who do the data collection.  Does this mean I don't actually believe much of what we are told. From experience and personal observation a resounding YES.

Oh and its easy to increase your five year average when you start from rock bottom -many other rivers didn't have to do that did they.

WUF Salmon Fishing Report

November 2015
I spent much of the last two reports moaning about how dry it had been and how, at 18", we had been robbed of fishing opportunities in mid and south Wales as Tywi, Usk and Wye all finished the season without a proper spate in October. Well, needless to say, it did start raining after the season finished, although by early November not a lot of progress had been made in recharging reservoirs, ponds, underground springs or gravels. The rain continued, not that heavy at first but gradually getting heavier until finally, a downpour near the end of the month overtopped the dams and up went the levels to those we are more familiar with at this time of year.
Typically, Elan managed to do this two days before our river walk on the 29th , combining with Wye to give a high main stem. At that stage the majority of the tributaries were still on the low side when a good spate was still needed, so it was a challenge trying to find salmon spawning or ascending anywhere!
We also wanted to see what the revised Elan winter flow regimen looked like, but this was overtaken by 'H. Desmond' and its forerunner. The plan was to raise flows from the very modest compensation level (the amount discharged 365 days) set at 68ml/d in 1984 to 95ml/d from November 1st annually. Prior to the recent agreements, we have seen the Elan barely flowing during the spawning season only to rise suddenly when the dams overtop.

So, already at paragraph four and barely a mention of salmon! There was some early spawning in the main river at sites which normally suit early running fish such as Llanwrthwl Bridge. One of the sites we monitor regularly, the Sgithwen, has had a few fish spawning in it too with new ones arriving on the recent water but generally it has been impossible to find the river clear enough for any serious redd counting......and it's still raining. One worry was the number of otter kills during the low water period at the start of the month. It's a bit disheartening to see several fish dead with just a small part eaten and then washed away on the next flood.
A few late additions to the Wye catch took us past the 1,200 mark as well as taking the 5 year average past 1,000. Was this increase part of the normal variation from year to year or a genuine lift in stock numbers? This is how we see the evidence: following 2014 (a disappointing year for catches), many rivers have recovered to have a better year while others have found 2015 as bad or even worse than last. To date, we can see very, very few rivers that have increased their five year averages except the Wye (certain) and possibly Usk and Hampshire Avon too. That, of course, is partly a function of how good or bad 2010 was.
Secondly, there have been signs from juvenile data that Wye is now holding many more salmon. This year it had a great smolt run. The Usk is doing well where we have completed habitat restoration (e.g. Cynrig, Cilieni and Ysgir) but not universally - we will eventually catch up and complete other key streams too.
Thirdly, was the increased Wye catch as a result of more day tickets sold via the Passport? No, the number actually reduced. It is odd to say this but while most of our fishers and stakeholders acknowledge the Wye improvements for what they are: a genuine upturn in the salmon population; for some the news will always require comprehensive denial.

Finally, there are always worries that the high water will lead to the dreaded "redd washout." On the Wye there is very little main stem spawning below Hereford, if any at all, so there is little spawning at risk. The river carries way too much silt, so salmon have chosen to spawn upstream and in those tributaries not inundated with sediment. So far, I don't think the levels on either river have exceeded anything out of the ordinary and we are not even sure if the majority of the salmon have spawned yet anyway.
Over the last 10,000 or so years, Atlantic salmon (and trout too) have become extremely good at selecting sites that are safe for their offspring - I think Mr Darwin would approve! They also spread themselves out spatially as well as with their timing, so that the risk is minimised. There are lots of other issues to worry about (where does one start?!) but redd wash out would not be anywhere near the top of our list.

Season's Greetings from WUF.