Friday, 27 October 2017

Recent spate meant no fish have been reported from the upper river.  That's not to say none were caught.

Despite the end of the season Wye catches continue to go up, Chappel house finished on 22.  Spreadeagle 54.  Really.   |No names to getting on for a 100 of the fish reported. Why I wonder.  Should they be reported with no named angler.??  Not in my book.

See below an interesting post from the Fly Fishing Forums run by the (ban em all who disagree)Bradshaw.
Note that the Messiah -otherwise NK in that post predicts an actual downturn from this season till 2020 whilst predicting this years rod catch at 1750 plus.  How come he gets to this figure - though I guess there are ways and means.  Nevertheless todays figures and means of collection bear no resemblance to those of the past for several reasons.  One wonders what the NRW figures will be and which  ones are correct.?


riginally Posted by cb View Post
The river Wye is clearly improving, which is terrific, however, the catch returns show a very marked 4 year cycle. 2016 was a "peak" year and the next one will be (if the current trend continues) Year 2020. In the meantime the stats suggest that the catch will dip down to 700 or so in 2018.

If the current trend continues, this is what the catch stats predict:

2017: 1,000
2018: 700
2019: 1,600
2020: 2,000

2016 followed the predicted trend perfectly - now will 2017?

This is what the catch results show in graph form:

Click the image to open in full size.


(On the other hand , what was it that Disraeli said?, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.") 
Thank you Colin. 

Interesting: you have picked on a 4 year cycle to predict this and future years. FWIW, here's mine, with the proviso that we dont have a 1976 (or 2003, 1984, 1990 etc) ie very dry year in any of them

So 

2017 1750+
2018 1750
2019 1500
2020 1250 

Sorry!

NK

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